The fight over who will control the Washington State Legislature for the next two years will be fought primarily in swing suburban districts surrounding Puget Sound.  Currently Democrats have a 57-to-41 advantage in the House of Representatives and a 28-21 majority in the Senate (this includes Democrat Senator Tim Sheldon who caucuses with the GOP).  Thus Republicans will need to pick up nine seats in the House and four in the Senate to gain control of the legislature.

So, as a public service, Shift is identifying the races to watch as both parties jockey for position in advance of the formal filing for office, which takes place in a month. On the House side, there are eight suburban swing districts which currently have two Democrat Representatives.  They are:

• 28^th LD (Southwest Pierce County)
• 30^th LD (Southwest King Co.)
• 38^th LD (Northwest Snohomish Co.)
• 42^nd LD (Whatcom Co.)
• 44^th LD (East Snohomish Co.)
• 45^th LD (Northeast King Co.)
• 47^th LD (South King Co.)
• 48^th LD (East King Co.)

Additionally, there is one seat in the 10^th LD (Island, Northwest Snohomish , and Southwest Skagit counties.) that is currently held by a Democrat. Thus, there are 17 contests where Republicans hope to gain nine seats.

Given the right candidate who fits the district, there is also the possibility of picking up House seats in these legislative districts:

• 3^rd LD (Spokane)
• 5^th LD (East King Co.)
• 24^th LD (Olympic Peninsula)
• 49^th LD (Vancouver)

On the Senate side, there are currently six suburban swing legislative districts which have seats currently held by Democrats up for election in 2022. They are:

• 26^th LD (Kitsap County and North Pierce Co.)
• 30^th LD (Southwest King Co.)
• 44^th LD (East Snohomish Co.)
• 45^th LD (Northeast King Co.)
• 47^th LD (South King Co.)
• 48^th LD (East King Co.)

There continues to be speculation that Senator Mark Mullet (D – Issaquah) might be willing to switch caucuses if Republicans gain control.  Governor Jay Inslee, the government employee unions, and the far-Left of the Democrat party attempted to remove the “moderate” Democrat Senator Mullet during the 2020 elections, because he didn’t support the Democrats’ state income tax on capital gains (which he voted against when it passed during the 2021 legislative session).  Mullet was also one of the very few Democrats who supported meaningful legislation (SB 5039) to halt Governor Inslee’s never-ending abuse of emergency orders (now on Day 773).

Thus, depending on Senator Mullet’s decision, the Republicans will need to pick three or four of these six seats in order to gain control in the Senate.

The major advantage the Republicans have in all of these races is that the issues which are currently paramount in the suburbs firmly favor the GOP strengths.  Public safety, education, inflation, and taxes are all areas where the Democrats have dramatically failed, and the voters strongly support Republican priorities. This is especially true with women voters, who have been voting more for Democrats in recent years.

Republican operatives continue to recruit candidates for all available positions.  Thus far they have had great success in recruiting strong women candidates for many seats (as Shift readers have seen from our recent interviews with 30^th Senate candidate Linda Kochmar and 28^th House candidate Susanna Keilman, and will see again this Friday with another interview with an impressive woman candidate for a House seat).

The 2022 elections could be history-changing for our state, and Shift will continue to provide the stories and the analysis to keep our readers informed. (Washington Legislature by District, Seattle Times,  Washington Legislature Bill Summary, and Shift Newsmaker Interview)

Those behind the initiative campaign to repeal the Democrats’ state income tax on capital gains have filed a lawsuit challenging the incredibly partisan wording which Democrat Attorney General Bob Ferguson wrote for the ballot title and summary for the proposed initiative.  As part of his duties, the AG is supposed to provide “a true and impartial description of the measure’s essential content.”  Yet the very partisan and divisive AG Ferguson decided to play political games with his ballot title and description of the proposed initiative. The attorney general labeled it an “excise tax,” which is a tax allowed under the state’s constitution, instead of following a recent Douglas County Superior Court decision which stated the state tax was clearly an “income tax” (which is unconstitutional in Washington State).

Remember, all 49 other states and the Internal Revenue Service categorize this type of tax on capital gains as an “income tax.”  Only Governor Jay Inslee and Washington State Democrats, who are seeking to work around the state’s constitution to install an income tax in Washington (to provide an additional taxpayer dollars to fund their goal of an even larger and more costly state government), call this tax an “excise tax.” In fact, “excise tax” does not appear in the law at all.

The initiative campaign’s lawsuit argues that AG Ferguson’s wording will cause confusion with the voters and that it does not provide the accurate legal description of the tax.  Chances are that the reason behind the Attorney General choice to write this confusing language is that he wants to delay as long as possible the campaign’s efforts to collect the 325,000 signatures needed to qualify for this November’s ballot.  The campaign needs to turn in those signatures by the first week of July, and Ferguson’s scheme will delay the efforts by at least a couple of weeks. (Washington Policy Center and Washington Secretary of State brochure on initiatives and referendums)

Seattle Times columnist Naomi Ishisaka interviewed retiring one-term Representative Kirsten Harris-Talley (D – Seattle) and determined that since three people of color are retiring from the Washington State Legislature, the body must be racist and that a full-time, highly paid state legislature is needed.  Ishisaka points out that Senator Mona Das (D – Kent), Representative Jesse Johnson (D – Federal Way), and Representative Harris-Talley are all people of color, and all are retiring from the legislature.  Ishisaka fails to point out other factors for their retirement, such as Representative Johnson was one of the architects of the anti-police package passed by the Democrats which many people blame for being instrumental in the dramatic rise in crime – especially in South King County.  Senator Das has never gotten along with her Democrat colleagues, especially after she publicly labeled them a bunch of racists.  Before announcing their retirement, both Senator Das and Representative Johnson were facing strong contenders and all polls showed that both would likely lose this November.

Ishisaka also failed to point out that several of the other legislators who have already announced their retirements are white males.  They include Senators Reuven Carlyle and Senator Tim Sheldon, and Representatives Jeremie Dufault, Larry Hoff, Steve Kirby, Bob McCaslin, and Pat Sullivan.  There are also five white females who are retiring as well.

The article goes on to argue for a more expensive full-time legislature with far more staff for each member.  Representative Harris-Talley stated that for the 51 days she served on the Seattle City Council (as a temporary appointee) she had five full-time staff members.  Given the incredibly bad policies which have come out of Seattle City Hall during the past couple of decades, it is incredibly difficult to imagine anyone wanting to use the Seattle City Council as an ideal form of legislative body which others would want to emulate.  (Seattle Times and Kent Reporter)

Poor administration within Governor Inslee’s Department of Corrections (DOC) allowed a prison guard with numerous violations and suspensions to keep his job. According to KING5 News, prison guard John Gray had a “thick disciplinary record” that includes more than two dozen complaints against him, and he was even fired at one point before being brought back to his job at the Clallam Bay Corrections Center.  Gray’s numerous violations included racism toward coworkers, vulgarity toward offenders, security breaches, and sexual harassment.  Despite his terrible record, union officials fought for him to keep his job.  Gray was eventually fired from Clallam Bay and then was hired by the City of Forks, where he served as a guard in a women’s facility. He was fired from this post, but then rehired by the Department of Corrections, with a pay raise.  During his time at the Forks’ facility, Gray committed sexual assaults against four women. He has since been convicted for the assaults and is serving 20 months in prison. Lawsuits are now pending against the City of Forks for hiring this jail guard with a troubled work history.

This is one of many problems within Governor Inslee’s Department of Corrections. Remember when a computer programing error allowed more than 3,000 inmates to be released early.  Or when medical negligence by DOC medical personnel was cited for the deaths of many inmates. Finally, failure to comply with safety guidelines at nearly all DOC facilities has resulted in many COVID outbreaks and inmate deaths. Not exactly a proud record of achievement under Governor Inslee’s “management.” (KING5 News, NPR, Seattle Times)

New Tacoma Police Chief Avery Moore said his department’s first priority is to solve and prevent violent crimes, then the police will spend more of its resources on break-ins and vandalism. Chief Moore has been on the job since the start of the year. Next week he will release his plan to reduce crime to the Tacoma City Council. (KOMO News)

Representative Joe Schmick (R – Colfax) told the Clarkston City Councilmembers they need to continue to make known the major negative financial impacts which removing the Snake River dams would have for the region.  The legislator told the elected officials that more people need to understand how removing the dams would be devastating to Eastern Washington’s economy while also causing damage to the environment.  Representative Schmick also said that more people need to visit the dams and see the “tremendous improvements” which have been made at the dams to allow fish to migrate upstream. (Lewiston Tribune)

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