Will 2022 be the year the GOP stampedes back to control the legislature?

The fight over who will control the Washington State Legislature for the next two years will be fought primarily in swing suburban districts surrounding Puget Sound.  Currently Democrats have a 57-to-41 advantage in the House of Representatives and a 28-21 majority in the Senate (this includes Democrat Senator Tim Sheldon who caucuses with the GOP).  Thus Republicans will need to pick up nine seats in the House and four in the Senate to gain control of the legislature.

So, as we begin our 2022 election coverage, Shift is identifying the races to watch as both parties jockey for position in advance of the formal filing for office, which takes place in a month. On the House side, there are eight suburban swing districts which currently have two Democrat Representatives.  They are:

• 28^th LD (Southwest Pierce County)
• 30^th LD (Southwest King Co.)
• 38^th LD (Northwest Snohomish Co.)
• 42^nd LD (Whatcom Co.)
• 44^th LD (East Snohomish Co.)
• 45^th LD (Northeast King Co.)
• 47^th LD (South King Co.)
• 48^th LD (East King Co.)

Additionally, there is one seat in the 10^th LD (Island, Northwest Snohomish, and Southwest Skagit counties.) that is currently held by a Democrat. Thus, there are 17 contests where Republicans hope to gain nine seats.

Given the right candidate who fits the district, there is also the possibility of picking up House seats in these legislative districts:

• 3^rd LD (Spokane)
• 5^th LD (East King Co.)
• 24^th LD (Olympic Peninsula)
• 49^th LD (Vancouver)

On the Senate side, there are currently eight suburban swing legislative districts which have seats currently held by Democrats up for election in 2022. They are:

• 21^st LD (Southwest Snohomish Co.)
• 26^th LD (Kitsap County and North Pierce Co.)
• 29^th CD (Central Pierce Co.)
• 30^th LD (Southwest King Co.)
• 44^th LD (East Snohomish Co.)
• 45^th LD (Northeast King Co.)
• 47^th LD (South King Co.)
• 48^th LD (East King Co.)

There continues to be speculation that Senator Mark Mullet (D – Issaquah) might be willing to switch caucuses if Republicans gain control.  Governor Jay Inslee, the government employee unions, and the far-Left of the Democrat party attempted to remove the “moderate” Democrat Senator Mullet during the 2020 elections, because he didn’t

support the Democrats’ state income tax on capital gains (which he voted against when it passed during the 2021 legislative session).  Mullet was also one of the very few Democrats who supported meaningful legislation (SB 5039) to halt Governor Inslee’s never-ending abuse of emergency orders (now on Day 774).

Thus, depending on Senator Mullet’s decision, the Republicans will need to pick three or four of these eight seats in order to gain control in the Senate.

The major advantage the Republicans have in all of these races is that the issues which are currently paramount in the suburbs firmly favor the GOP strengths.  Public safety, education, inflation, and taxes are all areas where the Democrats have dramatically failed, and the voters strongly support Republican priorities. This is especially true with suburban women voters, who have been voting more for Democrats in recent years.  Republican recruiters have found success in finding strong women candidates to run for office, this is partially due to the efforts of League of Their Own which has been coaching prospective moderate and conservative women candidates to run for office at all levels.

Republican operatives continue to recruit candidates for all available positions.  Thus far they have had great success in recruiting strong women candidates for many seats (as Shift readers have seen from our recent interviews with 30^th Senate candidate Linda Kochmar and 28^th House candidate Susanna Keilman, and will see again this Friday with another interview with an impressive woman candidate for a House seat).

The 2022 elections could be history-changing for our state, and Shift will continue to provide the stories and the analysis to keep our readers informed.