A new Cygnal poll commissioned by the Concerned Taxpayers Accountability Center (CTAC) delivers more bad news for Gov. Bob Ferguson and Washington Democrats, finding voters oppose the state’s new 9.9% income tax by a staggering 67% to 21%. Nearly 60% said they strongly oppose the tax, signaling that Democrats’ long-awaited policy victory may quickly become a political liability.

The poll also found that Democrats’ messaging isn’t moving the needle. Even after respondents heard the party’s best arguments—that the tax only applies to households earning more than $1 million and would fund education, transportation, and healthcare—a 57% majority still sided with opponents, agreeing that the tax is unconstitutional and could eventually be expanded beyond millionaires. More than half of those surveyed said they believe ordinary Washingtonians will ultimately end up paying the tax.

The survey paints an equally bleak picture for Ferguson, who sits underwater with voters at 39% favorable to 49% unfavorable, while a majority of Washingtonians say the state is headed in the wrong direction. Those numbers come as voters prepare to decide this fall whether to repeal the income tax after activists gathered enough signatures to put the measure on the ballot.

For Democrats, it’s an uncomfortable reality. They spent years arguing Washington needed an income tax, finally pushed one through the Legislature this year, and now face the possibility that voters could send it straight back to the scrap heap. Read more at Seattle Red.

Despite the devastating poll previously mentioned, Gov. Bob Ferguson officially kicked off the campaign to protect Washington’s new 9.9% income tax, urging voters to reject Initiative 645, which would repeal the tax if it qualifies for November’s ballot. Surrounded by union allies and progressive advocacy groups, Ferguson argued the tax is essential to making Washington more affordable, while claiming repeal would hand a tax break to wealthy business owners.

Conspicuously absent from Ferguson’s remarks was Let’s Go Washington’s long list of victories. While he highlighted several tax-related initiatives that failed at the ballot box, he ignored the group’s successful efforts to pass the Parents’ Bill of Rights, restore police pursuit standards, protect natural gas, and permanently ban state income taxes—until Democrats simply passed one anyway.

Let’s Go Washington founder Brian Heywood fired back, arguing the campaign to preserve the tax is being driven by powerful public-sector unions that benefit from ever-expanding government spending while paying no state taxes themselves. Other opponents warned that the so-called “millionaires’ tax” is simply the first step toward a broader income tax, pointing to Washington voters’ repeated rejection of the idea over the past century.

The battle now heads toward what could become one of the biggest political fights of the year. Democrats insist the tax will only affect the wealthy and fund public services. Opponents aren’t buying it, arguing that once Olympia gets a foot in the door with an income tax, it’s only a matter of time before middle-class families find themselves paying the bill. Read more at Center Square.

One of Washington’s most competitive legislative races is shaping up in Legislative District 42, where retiring Democratic Sen. Sharon Shewmake has opened the door to a potential Republican pickup. Republicans last held the seat in 2021 and see this year’s race as an opportunity to chip away at Democrats’ legislative majority.

Republican Erika Creydt, a Blaine School Board member and small business owner, is making affordability and opposition to Democrats’ tax agenda the centerpiece of her campaign. She blasted Olympia for pushing through the state’s controversial income tax and argued that overregulation and higher taxes are driving businesses out of Washington while delivering little in return. Creydt says families are paying more but aren’t seeing better roads, schools, or public services.

Democrats, meanwhile, are fielding two candidates—Eamonn Collins and Michael Shepard—both of whom are campaigning on familiar priorities like affordable housing and education. Shepard also carries the endorsement of outgoing Sen. Shewmake.

With ballots hitting mailboxes this week, the race will offer an early test of whether voters are willing to reward Democrats after another legislative session dominated by tax increases—or whether frustration over affordability will give Republicans a chance to flip one of the state’s most closely watched Senate seats. Read more at Center Square.

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