Election Day is over. The ballot counting, naturally, is not.

Washington voters weighed in on three high-profile statewide initiatives Tuesday, delivering a mixed set of early results on taxes, parental rights and school athletics. The biggest development for taxpayers: Initiative 645, the effort to repeal Washington’s new income tax on earnings above $1 million, is trailing by a substantial margin.

And for anyone hoping the election would settle these debates once and for all, there’s a familiar Washington caveat: Not so fast.

The income tax repeal is trailing

Initiative 645 is currently losing 58.12% to 41.88%, a margin of more than 322,000 votes in the reported tally.

The measure would have repealed the state’s new 9.9% income tax on annual income exceeding $1 million, scheduled to take effect in 2028. If the current results hold, the tax remains on the books.

That doesn’t mean the fight is over. Opponents of the tax have also pursued legal challenges, meaning the courts could have another say in its future.

For now, voters appear to have declined to overturn the tax at the ballot box. The question of whether it survives its legal challenges remains open.

Parental rights initiative trails

Initiative 001, which sought to restore parental rights provisions involving public schools, is also trailing.

The measure currently has 47.25% support and 52.75% opposition, a difference of approximately 106,000 votes.

The result is a setback for supporters seeking to restore those provisions through the ballot. Whether the measure ultimately fails will depend on the remaining ballots.

Initiative 638 leads on girls’ sports

Initiative 638 is heading in the opposite direction, with 56.76% voting yes and 43.24% voting no.

The measure would restrict transgender girls from participating in girls’ K–12 school sports and require health-care-provider verification of sex for participation.

If the current margin holds, the initiative will represent a significant change to Washington’s existing school athletics policy.

Congressional races: A close contest in Eastern Washington

Washington’s congressional results offer a mix of comfortable leads and closer contests.

In the 3rd Congressional District, Democrat Marie Gluesenkamp Perez is leading Republican John Braun 54.96% to 44.18%, a margin of approximately 28,000 votes.

In the 5th Congressional District, Republican incumbent Michael Baumgartner holds a much narrower lead over Democrat Carmela Conroy: 50.32% to 49.35%, or just 1,857 votes.

That race remains one to watch as additional ballots are counted.

Elsewhere, Democratic candidates are leading in the state’s remaining congressional districts, including Amanda McKinney in the 4th District against Republican John Duresky.

Washington Supreme Court races

Five Washington Supreme Court positions were also on the ballot.

The reported results show leads for Colleen Melody, Jaime Michelle Hawk, Sean O’Donnell, Theo Angelis and incumbent Debra Stephens.

The closest contest is Position 4, where O’Donnell leads Ian Birk by approximately 40,000 votes, or just over two percentage points.

The bottom line

Washington’s election results are not yet final, but the early picture is taking shape.

The income tax repeal is trailing by more than 16 percentage points. The parental-rights initiative is also behind, while Initiative 638 is leading by more than 13 points.

For Republicans, the narrow Baumgartner lead in the 5th Congressional District is an important race to watch. For Democrats, the current congressional results show leads across all ten districts.

And for Washington taxpayers, the biggest question remains unanswered: whether the state’s new income tax will survive its legal challenges, regardless of Tuesday’s vote.

One thing is certain: Washington’s political debates over taxes, parental rights and education policy aren’t going anywhere. And, for Republicans, last night was anything but pretty.

Democrats are leading in several Republican-held districts, including races that could hand them nine additional seats. That’s right: Nine.

The 17th and 18th LDs: A Republican double-double loss

Republicans are having a particularly rough night in Southwest Washington. Democrats are leading in all four House races across the 17th and 18th Legislative Districts, threatening to wipe out the Republican representation in both districts.

In the 17th, Republican incumbents Kevin Waters and David Stuebe are trailing Democratic challengers Ben Christly and Diana Perez.

• Ben Christly (D): 55.5% | Kevin Waters (R): 44.3%
• Diana Perez (D): 55.7% | David Stuebe (R): 44.1%

Next door in the 18th, Republicans Stephanie McClintock and John Ley are also trailing.

• Randi Knott (D): 53.3% | Stephanie McClintock (R): 46.5%
• Deken Letinich (D): 54.9% | John Ley (R): 44.9%

Four Republican-held seats, four Democratic leads. Not exactly the election-night scoreboard Republicans were hoping to see.

The 14th LD: Another Republican stronghold slips

Over in the Yakima Valley, Republican incumbents Gloria Mendoza and Deb Manjarrez are both trailing Democratic challengers by double digits.

• Chelsea Dimas (D): 55.3% | Gloria Mendoza (R): 44.3%
• Ezequiel Morfin (D): 55.7% | Deb Manjarrez (R): 43.9%

If those numbers hold, Democrats will have picked up two more Republican seats in a district that has been a competitive battleground.

The 25th LD: Somebody needs to check the scoreboard

The Puyallup-area 25th District is giving Republicans a little more reason to keep refreshing their browsers.

Both House races are essentially neck and neck:

• David Berg (D): 50.4% | Michael Keaton (R): 49.4%
• Cyndy Jacobsen (R): 50.3% | Jenn Marie Strickling (D): 49.5%

Neither party has much room to celebrate here. These races are close enough that the next ballot drop could change the picture entirely.

The 12th LD: Another Republican incumbent in trouble

Democrat Stacy Willoughby is narrowly leading Republican incumbent Brian Burnett, 50.9% to 49%. Republican Mike Steele is leading comfortably in the district’s other House race.

The Senate: Democrats have their eyes on more than the House

The Senate isn’t immune to the shifting numbers, either.

In the 35th Legislative District, Democrat Carolina Mejia is leading Republican incumbent Drew MacEwen, 51.4% to 48.5%. A loss would cost Republicans another Senate seat.

Meanwhile, Democrat Michael Shepard is leading Erika Creydt 56.9% to 43% in the 42nd District, where he is seeking to succeed retiring Democratic Sen. Sharon Shewmake.

The takeaway: Two-thirds of the way to a supermajority?

Democrats are already firmly in control of Olympia. Now they’re looking to turn that control into something even more substantial.

A two-thirds House majority would give Democrats considerably more legislative muscle, including the ability to override gubernatorial vetoes with the required supermajority vote.

Republicans, meanwhile, are watching several seats they previously held slip away in districts that were supposed to be competitive.

Of course, Washington still has plenty of ballots left to count. But if these numbers hold, Republicans won’t just be dealing with another election-night disappointment. They’ll be dealing with an even smaller voice in a Legislature where Democrats already hold the keys.