President and CEO of the Bellevue Chamber of Commerce Joe Fain sent out this short recap of yesterday’s elections. We thought we would repost it here for our readers.
Plenty of surprises in last night’s results. Vice President Biden appears to have a clearer path to victory after securing the 2nd District in Nebraska. The President would need to hold onto Georgia, North Carolina, and Pennsylvania, and make a surprise pickup in Nevada where he is down half a point, or a barrage of late breaking ballots for Trump in Arizona. Throughout the night and this morning, Arizona’s Republican Governor and the Trump campaign have stressed that Arizona is still in play. WSJ and Fox News called the state for Biden, but MSNBC, and CNN have it too close to call.
- Bold and Likely Irresponsible Prediction: Biden: 270, Trump: 268
Republicans are all but certain to hold onto the US Senate. Key pickups in Montana, an unexpectedly strong showing in Maine and Michigan, and thus far holding strong to Kentucky, Georgia, and South Carolina where Democrats spent close to $ 200,000 million to unseat incumbents.
The most likely outcome is a one seat pickup for Democrats as late mail-in votes in Michigan propel incumbent Democratic Senator Gary Peters ahead of Republican John James. Democrats have a second pickup opportunity as Georgia heads to a runoff election to fill the seat currently held by Senator Kelly Loeffler, who has advanced to the runoff.
- Prediction at Start of New Congress: + 1 Democrat (52 Republican, 48 Democrats)
House of Representatives
The House remains under Democratic control with scores or races too close to call. The blue wave expected by many pollsters never materialized and Republicans are currently net five seats to the positive.
10th Congressional in Washington State
Former Seattle Chamber CEO and Tacoma Mayor, Marilyn Strickland, will be the next congressional representative in the 10th as its current occupant, Denny Heck ascends (or descends depending your view of the office) to Lt. Governor. The win by Strickland bolsters the more pro-business wing of the Democratic party against the Sanders Socialist wing.
Secretary of State
Republican Incumbent Kim Wyman is holding onto a strong lead with an impressive 40% showing in King County. The race is still close but Wyman is expected to win reelection.
Superintendent of Public Instruction
The close race that many thought might materialize fizzled out as incumbent Chris Reykdal won handily over his challenger Maia Espinoza.
Several races appear too close to call, but Democrats are leading in two districts currently held by Republican incumbents. Republican Steve O’ban in the 28th district of Pierce County is losing to his Democratic Challenger T’wina Nobles but a little over 2.5%.
In the 10th District of Island, Skagit, and Whatcom county, Democrats are poised for another pickup with slightly under a 2% lead on the Republican incumbent.
The story is swapped in Southwest Washington where longtime Democratic legislator, Dean Takko, will likely be defeated. And in the hotly contested Democrat on Democrat race in the 5th District of King County, Incumbent Mark Mullet is narrowly trailing his opponent. Results pushed out at 4:00 pm today will show if Mullet is still in the hunt.
- Likely outcome: +1 Democrat