Washington Democrats came out of last week’s primary with plenty to celebrate. They also came away with a very clear roadmap for how they could capture the legislative supermajority they’ve been chasing.
Republicans now have an equally clear roadmap for stopping them.
Democrats need to gain seven seats in the House and three in the Senate to reach a supermajority. Republican Party Chair Jim Walsh said after the primary that he did not expect Democrats to get there, pointing specifically to competitive races in the 17th and 18th legislative districts.
But the primary results show just how much work Republicans have to do.
The 17th District is suddenly a major battleground
The 17th Legislative District, which voted for Kamala Harris in 2024, currently has two Republican House members: Rep. Kevin Waters and Rep. David Stuebe.
Both advanced to November—but both trailed their Democratic challengers.
In Position 1, Democratic challenger Ben Christly received 54.9%, compared with 41.9% for Waters. In Position 2, Vancouver City Councilmember Diana Perez took 56.6%, while Stuebe received 43.4%.
That looks ugly for Republicans.
But there is an important piece of context: this was a low-turnout August primary, not November. Statewide turnout was hovering around just 27% in the initial count, while Clark County reported roughly 32% at one point.
In other words, Democrats have a lead. They do not have a victory.
The 18th wasn’t much better
The neighboring 18th District is also a Democratic target—and the primary results gave Democrats plenty of ammunition.
In Position 1, Democratic challenger Randi Knott beat Republican Rep. Stephanie McClintock, 52.1% to 47.9%.
In Position 2, Democrat Deken Letinich defeated Republican Rep. John Ley, 53.6% to 46.5%.
Unlike the 17th, these are already general-election matchups with no third candidate splitting the vote.
That makes November a genuine fight.
Then there’s WA-03
The congressional race everyone will be watching is WA-03, where Democratic Rep. Marie Gluesenkamp Perez faces Republican state Sen. John Braun.
The primary could hardly have produced a closer matchup.
Gluesenkamp Perez finished with 38.9% and Braun with 38.7%—a difference of just a few hundred votes. Progressive Democrat Brent Hennrich took roughly 15%, while the remaining candidates split the rest.
So much for a comfortable incumbent.
Braun now gets a one-on-one race against Perez, who has already demonstrated that she can win in a district Republicans once considered safely theirs.
And turnout is the giant question mark
Washington’s primary turnout was low enough that Republicans have every reason to believe November will look different.
Walsh called the primary turnout “atrocious” and argued that holding an election in August, when families are on vacation and children are out of school, suppresses participation. He urged Republicans to return to “shoe leather politics”—knocking on doors and talking directly to voters.
That may be the most important lesson from the primary.
Democrats have momentum. They have money. And they are aggressively targeting Republican-held seats.
But they haven’t won them yet.
The 17th and 18th districts remain battlegrounds. WA-03 is essentially a dead heat. And millions of Washington voters who sat out the August primary will have another opportunity to decide who controls Olympia.
The primary was a warning for Republicans.
It was also an opportunity.
Democrats are seven House seats and three Senate seats away from getting a supermajority. Republicans are three months away from making sure they never get it.
