Providing some cover for Seattle politicians, the Puget Sound Business Journal claims that the city’s $15 minimum wage law has not yet produced the expected negative consequences warned by economists. Rather, the article states, 5,227 permits for food service establishments have already been issued in Seattle this year, putting them on the pace to surpassing the 5,458 permits issued in 2014 and the 5,415 issued in 2013.
But, as the Washington Policy Center points out, that’s not the whole story. Based on figures from September, a net number of 700 restaurant employees in Seattle have lost their jobs since the $15 minimum wage ordinance went into effect earlier this year. The job losses mark the largest decline over the January-September period since the “Great Recession” in 2009.
Even more telling, that is in sharp contrast to the rest of the state where the restaurant industry added 5,800 new jobs. The Washington Policy Center,
“To put the loss of 700 restaurant jobs in Seattle between January and September in perspective, in previous years jobs in this industry have multiplied. The average job gain during the same period over the previous five years was almost 3,000, and over the previous three years the job gain was nearly 4,000.”
The bad news doesn’t end with the loss of 700 restaurant jobs. The $15 minimum wage also impacts “future job opportunities as restaurants opt to expand in other cities.” The CEO of Wild Buffalo Wings recently stated of her one restaurant in Seattle, “We probably won’t be expanding there. That’s true of San Francisco and Los Angeles, too.”
The hesitancy on the part of restaurants to expand in Seattle only means that the 700 people who recently found themselves without their jobs will find it even more difficult to find new employment in the city. And, of course, the consequences of Seattle’s $15 minimum wage have yet to be played out in full—that won’t happen until wages actually hit $15 per hour in the years to come.
Why am I always right? I get lambasted by people like Tensor who I know is lurking out there trying to justify the irrationality of the Socialist City Council while heralding new jobs elsewhere in the city, but fails to acknowledge that those new jobs are high end jobs that requires a sheepskin to get. That certainly doesn’t help the middle class nor those less fortunate, but that isn’t the point. I own a restaurant. I know that the profit margin is minimal. I know that randomly picking a wage requirement has long term consequences. This is a fulfilled prophecy. Let’s sit back and see what happens in the future based upon bad decisions
Why am I always right? I get lambasted by people like Tensor…
Because you’re never right, that’s why. If you follow the links back, from the (Seattle-based!) Washington Policy Center through to the American Enterprise Institute, you’ll find the post at the AEI comparing the number of restaurant licenses in Seattle proper (population ~600K) to the employment figures for the Seattle Metropolitan Statistical Area (MSA), which also encompasses Bellevue and Tacoma (total population of 3.7 million). The number of restaurant licenses in Seattle has been rising all year, while the job losses are across the entire MSA — making it unlikely that many (if any) of the lost jobs were ever in Seattle at all. (Note also that the MSA had a net gain in jobs, even though the unemployment rate in the MSA was already lower than in the rest of the state — and the MSA contains the cities with the highest minimum wages in the state.)
Exactly the same economist at AEI pulled exactly the same stunt last time, and you opponents of higher minimum wages swallowed it blissfully then, and regurgitated it just as blindly.
Look, you own a restaurant, and you resent being told what to pay your employees. Just admit that. Don’t befoul our civic debate here by foolishly repeating misleading data and pretending your resentment has some sound economic basis.
… while heralding new jobs elsewhere in the city, but fails to acknowledge that those new jobs are high end jobs that requires a sheepskin to get.
It requires a “sheepskin to get” a job at one of Tom Douglas’ new Seattle restaurants? (Just tonight, I dined at one he has opened since April. How is that even possible? I thought he predicted restaurants in Seattle would close!)
Denying that artificially inflating wages kills jobs just flies in the face of plain logic. When you have the same budget to pay the same number of employees, well guess what happens. Hours are cut. There is no magical formula that makes this not so. Reality has a way of destroying fantasy land, thats why you can only live there so long.
Denying that artificially inflating wages kills jobs just flies in the face of plain logic.
Fundamental point about logic: garbage in, garbage out. If you start with the premise that higher wages hurt business, then when higher wages go into effect, logic demands you conclude that business is hurting. Thus, you’re left witlessly insisting Seattle’s restaurant sector is hurting even as the number of restaurants in town is increasing.
Reality has a way of destroying fantasy land, thats why you can only live there so long.
I don’t know about that; you opponents of our local minimum wage increases have been consistently wrong since at least 1998, and in all of those years, not a single one of you has ever admitted to being wrong. That’s some pretty solid dedication to not allowing our reality to destroy your fantasy land.
True, a certificate in culinary arts from Seattle Central Community College or similar is likely required to get a job as a sous chef or executive chef. The people Tensor saw in Tom Douglas’s restaurant were very likely waiters (I did this for several years), hosts/hostesses and busboys (I have done this also). Degree not required for these jobs of course. Most thinking people are fully aware Bradley is referring to IT and other professional jobs that do in fact require a 4 year degree or greater.
It would be interesting to see how many full service restaurants are opening/closing (requiring more jobs to support) vs. self service enterprises such as food trucks, convenience stores, fast food, etc. I’d suspect a lot is food trucks, requiring less jobs to operate, which would help prove Bradley’s point. Am looking forward to seeing these year to year stats after the 2015 numbers are finalized at the City of Seattle.
As a small business owner, I respect what Bradley is saying. Like my mentor told me when I was an employee, one never has the perspective of a business owner until he becomes one. He was absolutely correct. Using the war analogy, only those who have been there truly understand what it’s like: to wonder if you’ll be able to cover payroll at the end of the month, the time drain of dealing with more and more government regulations, etc.
Am looking forward to seeing these year to year stats after the 2015 numbers are finalized at the City of Seattle.
And if those numbers show the number of restaurant employees increasing, I’m sure you’ll be back here to admit Seattle’s higher minimum wage had no measurable ill effect, right? Sure…
Tensor, you missed my point. Reread my post.
I said let’s look at the City of Seattle 2015 numbers to see the net gain/loss of full service restaurants vs. more self service eating places. My guess is there will be a higher percent gain of self service places vs. full service restaurants, because they require fewer $15 jobs to support. Plus, food trucks would have a higher ratio of owner jobs vs. employees, meaning fewer $15 jobs.
Your best case scenario is how full service restaurants do in today’s expanding economy. Your worst case scenario is a declining economy. You (as well as Seattle’s restaurants and other locally owned small businesses) will reap the consequences of the $15+ minimum wage either way.
If the 2015 Seattle count of types of eating places shows the number of full service restaurants had a higher net percent increase in growth vs. self service type places such as food trucks, sandwich shops, etc. I’d say let’s also look at how the economy is doing, and re-examine each year the minimum wage goes up.
If the net increase in full service restaurants is less than the self service types in an expanding economy, I look forward to hearing you say how you like the crow prepared that you’ll be eating. In the Tom Douglas restaurant you say you recently ate at, if he’ll prepare it.
In a declining economy, of course, people will be less likely to eat in a full service restaurant, and the effects of the $15 minimum wage will magnify the effect. Then there’s little doubt you’ll be dining on that black bird.
Plus, food trucks would have a higher ratio of owner jobs vs. employees, meaning fewer $15+ jobs.
Not necessarily. Skillet started as a food truck, opened a full-service restaurant, and now has a fleet of food trucks as well as two full-service restaurants. Plum Bistro started as a restaurant, and now has a food truck too.
If the net increase in full service restaurants is less than self service types in an expanding economy, I look forward to hearing you say how you like the crow…
There could be other reasons for such a difference. Seattle already has more restaurants per-capita than any American city other than San Francisco. The ratio of restaurants to inhabitants can’t continue to rise indefinitely, so food trucks (or other less-than-full service types of restaurants) might be the best growth opportunity in an otherwise saturated sector. If that was the reason, there would be no crow for us advocates of higher minimum wages to eat, because the increase in the number of food trucks would be a consequence of the continued expansion of Seattle’s restaurant sector as our local minimum wage rises.
In a declining economy, of course, people will be less likely to eat in a full service restaurant, and the effects of the $15+ minimum wage will magnify the effect.
You’re assuming what you’d need to show. Good luck with that.
Look, we Seattle liberals feel your pain. The number of restaurants has continued to rise here as our minimum wage has, and your pure speculation represents an attempt to deal with the continued expansion of Seattle’s economy in the face of your ideological belief that it cannot. Your really shouldn’t worry; like every other critic of an increase in the minimum wage, you can simply abandon your predictions after they fail.
Tensor, thank you for proving my point. I’m not familiar with Skillet, so I’ll trust what you’re saying. Instead of a chain of restaurants, they opted for one more restaurant plus a number of LOWER COST food trucks with fewer employees needed to run them. Ditto with Plum Bistro, who according to your post opted for a lower cost food truck instead of another higher cost restaurant. Actually sounds like a good strategy: serve more people with a food truck that also happens to have significantly lower food (labor) costs. Good for them! They may be creatively adjusting to the higher minimum wage by minimizing their head counts.
Nice try attempting to shift your argument yet again. This time to the number of per capita restaurants, trying to carve out a safe rhetorical refuge for when the business cycle inevitably turns down.
Sorry Tensor, when restaurants struggle to stay open in a down economy, there will be fewer $15+ employees vs. the number of employees had the minimum wage stayed the same. And/or fewer hours worked compared to the lower wage. You probably haven’t thought of this economic truth but we business owners have: if we have, say, $5,000 to pay wages, this dollar amount doesn’t magically stretch to pay $15+ an hour employees the same number of hours we can pay $10 or $12 an hour employees.
When the economy turns south and/or when we see proof of a lower increase of full service restaurants vs. minimal service ones/food trucks, will you prefer hot sauce with your crow, or will you prefer it sautéed? It’s only a matter of time, Tensor.
It would be because an expanding economy and bigger consumer paychecks would have overcome the higher prices caused by a higher minimum wage. But when the economy inevitably slows down, the effect will be worse on restaurants than with a lower minimum wage.
It would be because an expanding economy and bigger consumer paychecks would have overcome the higher prices caused by a higher minimum wage.
What’s your evidence for a higher minimum wage causing higher prices?
But when the economy inevitably slows down, the effect will be worse on restaurants than with a lower minimum wage.
Try providing evidence sometime, instead of just lazily assuming everything you need to prove.
I’d suspect a lot is food trucks, requiring less jobs to operate, which would help prove Bradley’s point.
No, if Seattle’s restaurant sector continues to add jobs as Seattle’s minimum wage rises, that will exactly disprove his point. (Not that anyone need do so; as we have already seen, his loud, self-congratulatory crowing doesn’t substitute for the actual evidence he needs, but — as always — completely lacks.)
Instead of a chain of restaurants, they opted for one more restaurant plus a number of LOWER COST food trucks with fewer employees needed to run them.
Skillet has a full-service restaurant, a diner, a counter in Seattle Center’s Armory, and a fleet of food trucks. Each of the last is a battered old Airstream trailer, customized to carry a kitchen. That is exactly the type of asset with high capital and operating costs, and yet you’re absolutely sure it’s “LOWER COST” than a counter in Seattle Center. You don’t even know the order in which Skillet obtained each type of restaurant, yet you confidently state Skillet opted for the “LOWER COST” after our minimum wage rose.
Nice try attempting to shift your argument yet again. This time to the number of per capita restaurants, trying to carve out a safe rhetorical refuge for when the business cycle inevitably turns down.
There was no “shift” here; I merely noted how the number of restaurants in Seattle has continued to grow as our minimum wage rose, but may be reaching the limit imposed by the size of the sector’s customer base. If it does reach that limit, then the sector cannot grow — not even if our local minimum wage was zero.
It’s only a matter of time, Tensor.
Indeed, you will soon blame our local minimum wage for any economic problem you claim we have — regardless of any and all other economic considerations.
Tensor, you’re twisting yourself into so many contortions, I’m starting to think you work at Teatro Zinzanni.
You yourself said Skillet started with a food truck, then a restaurant, then more food trucks. Then you (unsuccessfully) assert I don’t even know what order it was. As I previously stated, I was going along with what you said, which you apparently don’t recall. I don’t know why they expanded in this order, but it’s a good assumption they learned food trucks are a better business model than having a chain of full service restaurants. I’ll continue to assume lower labor costs is a definite factor. The occasional Airstream repair is very likely less expensive than a monthly lease, so they’re better off on both fronts.
I’m guessing the cost of purchasing an old, battered Airstream and retrofit was less than leasing space, remodeling and adding a kitchen. If true, it’s a triple win for them: lower upfront costs, lower ongoing operating costs and, yes, lower labor costs due to fewer employees.
By the way, you don’t deny food trucks generally have fewer employees and lower labor costs than full service restaurants.
Let me also help you remember you said Plum Bistro started as a full service restaurant, then started a food truck. Once again proving my point. This points to a lower cost expansion with fewer employees.
It really is only a matter of time until the economy sours and fewer will be working. For better or worse, with a $15 minimum wage more will be unemployed and some of them will be unemployed because those remaining will have higher wage jobs. Which will be good for those remaining, but worse for those who would have been employed had there been a lower minimum wage.
Bottom line, more will be unemployed in a downturn if there’s a higher minimum wage because a smaller amount of dollars will necessitate a lower number on the payroll vs. with a lower minimum wage.
By the way, you don’t deny food trucks generally have fewer employees and lower labor costs than full service restaurants.
I really don’t have time to deny every evidence-free assumption you happen to make. Show some documented numbers, or simply admit your claim is groundless.
This points to a lower cost expansion with fewer employees.
And yet, Skillet will soon open a new full-service restaurant in Seattle — once the Amazon office building which will house it is completed. Maybe restaurants are opting for food trucks simply because the strength of the local restaurant sector means existing spaces for full-service restaurants are impossible to find.
But that would contradict the entire purpose of your fact-free speculations, so you just won’t consider it, will you?
He was right. Just because you like to read a comment, reply, change the subject, and then point to the comment you’re replying to and say he’s wrong doesn’t make you right, it makes you, at the very least, illiterate to the point you can’t understand the written word at all, I’m going with that one because you missed the point of just about everything, or just flat out deceitful. Here’s one, he said elsewhere in the city, like a tech firm, not elsewhere in one of Tom Douglas’ new eateries. You don’t own a restaurant, but are saying a restaurant owner isn’t up to speed on the issue like you are, that’s a sign of narcissism.
Here’s one, he said elsewhere in the city, like a tech firm, not elsewhere in one of Tom Douglas’ new eateries.
His actual words were indeed, “… elsewhere in the city …”. The simplest and most straightforward interpretation of that phrase is literally, “in other physical places within Seattle.” A newly opened restaurant in Seattle has created new jobs within the city, jobs which, by and large, do not require “a sheepskin to get.”
Also, if you’re going to accuse someone else of being illiterate, you might want to avoid typing run-on, poorly-punctuated sentences.
Hey comrade. Why, just tonight, did you dine at the bourgeois capitalist’s establishment that he has opened since April? After all, he predicted restaurants in Seattle would close! Why would you support a greedy pig that wants to oppress the people, that only wants to take your money by patronizing his business? How is that even possible? Maybe because the grub there is a little better than at the Glorious People’s Sustenance Center?
Why, just tonight, did you dine at the bourgeois capitalist’s establishment that he has opened since April? After all, he predicted restaurants in Seattle would close!
Yes, how did he open a restaurant after our job-killing minimum-wage increase went into effect? We were told that restaurants would close, and yet more keep opening all of the time! Could it possibly be because that all of those predictions were utterly, totally, and completely wrong?
It doesn’t matter how he opened a restaurant whenever. The question was why did you dine at the bourgeois capitalist’s restaurant? Shouldn’t you be boycotting it or something?
It doesn’t matter how he opened a restaurant whenever.
I agree; you guys should simply abandon your predictions immediately after you make them. Reminding everyone of your past performances just does you no favors.
The question was why did you dine at the bourgeois capitalist’s restaurant? Shouldn’t you be boycotting it or something?
Because your endless red-baiting doesn’t have even the slightest thing to do with any actual external reality, that’s why.
So you supported someone with your patronage you fervently disagree with philosophically because the grub there is better than at the Glorious People’s Sustenance Center. Could you be any more ideologically shallow comrade?
…you fervently disagree with philosophically…
He and I disagree on whether the minimum wage in Seattle should be $9.47/hour or $11/hour. That’s a small difference in detail, and none whatsoever in philosophy.
But we can understand your confusion, comrade. Your deep admiration for your own Dear Party’s Leaders’ total commitment to absolute ideological purity in every last tiny detail has rendered you unable to comprehend tolerance of diversity in any way, shape, or form. Hence your belief that a small difference in dollars per hour equates to huge ideological betrayal.
“He and I disagree on whether the minimum wage in Seattle should be $9.47/hour or $11/hour”
No, he’s a greedy, blood-sucking, capitalist pig who has the gall to own not just one, but several restaurants, where he wants to oppress his minions, keep them in poverty and get wealthy off their backs by not paying them a “living wage”, going as far as publicly stating 15(not right)NOW is a bad idea and will cost jobs. Meanwhile you, having the ideological depth of a dime, continue to patronize his establishments.
When did it become 11 NOW-15 LATER anyway? You must have been meditating on the mountaintop in Nepal again during the last election cycle and missed your tsarina’s campaign signs that clearly stated “$15 minimum wage” (gotta pump your only accomplishment) Are you saying you now advocate for a minimum wage of only $11 and not a “living wage”? Don’t let that word get out.
No, he’s a greedy, blood-sucking, capitalist pig who has the gall to own not just one, but several restaurants, where he wants to oppress his minions, keep them in poverty…
Dude, if you feel that strongly about the man, then just don’t patronize his establishments during your many visits to Seattle. Leave his great dining experiences to us Seattle residents and our six-figure, private-sector incomes. We’re happy to spend our money at his restaurants.
…going as far as publicly stating 15(not right)NOW is a bad idea and will cost jobs.
And since he made that prediction, he has opened more restaurants and cut no jobs. (Why, it’s almost l like we Seattle residents pay him for great dining experiences, not for his advice on economic policy!)
When did it become 11 NOW-15 LATER anyway?
Successful politics, how does it work? (As a financial contributor to this site, you have no idea…)
You must have been meditating on the mountaintop in Nepal again during the last election cycle and missed your tsarina’s campaign signs that clearly stated “$15 minimum wage” (gotta pump your only accomplishment)
Actually, I was busy moving out of District 3, so I had no say in her re-election. Was that her slogan? (I leave it up to you guys at Shift to slobber obsessively over her every move.)
“Leave his great dining experiences to us Seattle residents and our
six-figure, private-sector incomes. We’re happy to spend our money at
his restaurants”
Nice, comrade. You’re finally admitting you’re a two-faced, ideologically bankrupt leftist. Talk the comrade talk, walk the bourgeois capitalist walk. Talk about the downtrodden people and poverty wages and how there ought to be regulations and mandates on evil businesses over a “great dining experience” at a capitalist’s business, one who wants to pay slave wages to his minions. Then again, you’re a advocate for an 11/hr minimum wage so you’re only 1.53 apart so it’s cool. Plus, during your “great dining experience”, you might spot the tsarina or the unelected blowhard billionaire commissar! Snap as “usie”, dude!
“Actually, I was busy moving out of District 3, so I had no say in her re-election. Was that her slogan?”
This might be your most disingenuous statement ever, comrade. It’s right up there with “I never saw a one I-594 ad”. There is no possible way even the most obtuse person in the world could have been anywhere near Capitol Hill in the last 6 months and NOT seen and read a single one of her red signs.
…one who wants to pay slave wages to his minions.
Then he’s doing a terrible job of it, because at the start of the year he was paying his employees at least $9.47/hour, and now he’s paying even more employees at least $11/hour.
Look, I really don’t care about his political views; I’m paying him for the great dining experiences he provides. So long as he obeys our laws, I’m fine with doing business with him.
Talk the comrade talk, walk the bourgeois capitalist walk.
Is that like whining constantly about everything Seattle, yet coming here so often as to describe it exactly, right down to the last detail?
There is no possible way even the most obtuse person in the world could have been anywhere near Capitol Hill in the last 6 months and NOT seen and read a single one of her red signs.
I believe you spend a lot of time in a very liberal district of Seattle, comrade! But, you see, those of us who are not obsessed with her don’t bother to give her posters special notice — and Capitol Hill has many, many posters for everyone to ignore.
If the public is now going to tell business owners what to pay employees, rather than allowing supply/demand to work, then I think Tensor you should certainly be spending your online time pushing for a HUGE reduction in the amount paid to football, baseball and basketball players. Or is that one area where huge demand with limited supply is OK by you?
… the amount paid to football, baseball and basketball players.
The NFL has both a minimum and a maximum wage structure for players:
The figure is derived from NFL revenue, of which players receive no less than 47 percent and no more than 48.5 percent according to the collective bargaining agreement ratified in 2011.
It appears private enterprise has this issue well in hand. (And by “private enterprise,” we mean, “a league run on socialist principles with a strong union.”)
Hey. Tensor the no name coward. Why are you Progressives happy with a lousy $15 bucks an hour? Why not $25? I’m guessing if you were king everyone would make just about the same depending on where your ideological stance was. And good on Biff.
Hey. Tensor the no name coward.
So, “devol” appears as your given name on your birth certificate, does it? You and your psychiatrist must have had some long and interesting conversations about whomever was responsible for that.
Also, if you don’t like “no-name” blog posts, you must really have an issue with the anonymous folks who write the front-page posts here.
Why are you Progressives happy with a lousy $15 bucks an hour? Why not $25?
Because we know about these things called “economics” and “math.”
I’m guessing if you were king everyone would make just about the same depending on where your ideological stance was.
Well, if I was in charge of our state’s senate, I certainly wouldn’t make the obvious mistake of soliciting advice on the minimum wage from the Washington Restaurant Association; they’ve been dead flat wrong about it since at least 1998, if not longer.
And raising a wage 50% will have no effect on a small business? Before you answer that, my company just got our health insurance increase for 2016.
It is going to increase over 70%, ($32,000 a year for 5 families) and we have the highest deductible, $6,000.
Two years ago we lost our Health insurance because the insurance company dropped the policy because of Obama mandates. To replace what we had we got an increase of $2,300 per employee. Add that and all the other Progressive/Communist tax increases you and your idiot buddies in Seattle vote for and perhaps you might see what small business is being pounded with. PROBABLY NOT.
And raising a wage 50% will have no effect on a small business?
The minimum wage in Seatac went from $9.19/hour in 2013 to $15/hour in 2014. That was a 63.2% increase. What was the effect on business there? Since you’ll never answer that, I’ll tell you:
Scott Ostrander, former general manager of the Cedarbrook Lodge in SeaTac, argued during the campaign that he would close several rooms in his hotel to avoid having to comply. Now, Cedarbrook Lodge is moving forward with a 63-room expansion and recently started paying the $15 per hour minimum wage. WallyPark says it’s had “the best year ever” and it’s very supportive of the minimum wage ordinance.
1) Were either of those companies paying minimum wage?
2) Everyone in that area is on an equal footing. All those in the area have to pay. Anyone competing for business not paying the minimum wage is therefore at a disadvantage because their product or service will cost more. And any business where labor is a large part of the cost, you can’t compete. But what the hell do I know being a business owner for 35 years. Nice cherry picking job though.
Were either of those companies paying minimum wage?
From the very strident — yet totally wrong — predictions they made about how Seatac’s increase in the minimum wage would harm their businesses, it would certainly seem so.
And any business where labor is a large part of the cost, you can’t compete.
Actually, it’s the low-wage businesses which lose employees. The manager of the Doubletree Hotel in Southcenter has seen employees leave to work at hotels in Seatac and Seattle:
“When the hotels up the street are already paying over $13 or $12.50 to start, with a bump at 90 days, I can’t compete,” he says. “I’ve lost over 50 percent of my housekeeping staff, and in the last seven months, we’ve had to do a quick unbudgeted wage scale increase for the entire department. We’ll do another full scale wage increase in January 2016.”
Nice cherry picking job though.
Then supply your own evidence to support your claims. (Oh, wait — you already know you can’t ever seem to do that, right?)