Media outlets and $15 minimum wage supporters are using the latest results of a study commissioned by the City of Seattle — and completed by a University of Washington (UW) research team — to boast of the success of the new wage law in Seattle.
However, celebrating the $15 minimum wage based on the results of the report is foolish — mainly because there is little to actually celebrate in the report that supports their argument for jacking up the minimum wage statewide.
We already know that — according to Jacob Vigdor (the professor leading the study) — the $15 minimum wage “picks winners and losers.” Consequences include higher youth unemployment, an increase in grocery, retail and rent prices, cutting worker hours, and reducing benefits.
Liberals are celebrating the study because it reveals that Seattle’s lowest wage workers are earning slightly more than they were before the $15 minimum wage law took effect. But, of course, that’s not the whole story revealed by the report.
Advocates of the $15 minimum wage leave out the part of the study that says Seattle’s lowest wage workers are “actually doing worse compared to low-wage workers in other parts of the state since the wage law took effect.” In fact, according to the study, Seattle’s low-wage workers are “lagging behind” other cities with less robust economies.
The study also makes it clear that the wage increases are “due more to the region’s booming economy than the actual wage hike itself.”
And, the negative impacts of the wage ordinance far outweigh the positive results (which don’t even have much to do with the $15 minimum wage). The Washington Policy Center:
“Amidst this robust economy, the UW study found the lowest-wage workers in Seattle have suffered reduced hours and lower rates of employment. The researchers note these cutbacks have offset, at least partially, the slight wage gains of those workers. This is exactly what those who opposed the city’s plan to pass a $15 wage law predicted.”
But, the reduced hours are not the only negative impacts revealed by the research. In fact, the results reveal that the “new wage law is directly responsible for lowering the employment opportunities of low-wage Seattle workers—their employment rate is 1.2 percentage points lower than what it would have been without the wage law.”
In Vigdor’s own words: “While the vibrant local economy is boosting employment and incomes up and down the economic ladder, the positive effects of a higher minimum wage are being at least partly offset by cutbacks in hours.”
That, certainly, is not something to celebrate – unless you are on the far-Left, and need a propaganda lift for their job-killing statewide minimum wage initiative on the ballot this fall.
“Why are liberals celebrating UW’s $15 minimum wage study?”
Because it neatly disproves one of the right wing’s biggest myths:
We do not find compelling evidence that the minimum wage has caused significant Increases in business failure rates. Moreover, if there has been any increase in business closings caused by the Minimum Wage Ordinance, it has been more than offset by an increase in business openings.
Too bad for all those folks who bought into the myth of Seattle’s higher minimum wage causing businesses to close, eh? It must be painfully humiliating for them to have fallen for such utter rubbish.
Except for the largest seasonally adjusted 3 month job loss in city history right after the 1st step (to $11/hr) took effect.
“We already know that — according to Jacob Vigdor (the professor leading the study) — the $15 minimum wage “picks winners and losers.” Consequences include higher youth unemployment, an increase in grocery, retail and rent prices, cutting worker hours, and reducing benefits”
We all get to share the misery, comrade. It’s the National (Democratic) Socialist way. It’s all you have.
Except for the largest seasonally adjusted 3 month job loss in city history right after the 1st step (to $11/hr) took effect.
Please do try to pay closer attention. Here, in this thread, I just now debunked Shift’s claim businesses were closing in Seattle because of our higher minimum wage. Back there, in another thread, I’d already debunked your exact claim about job losses (note: not the same thing as business closures), but you obviously fled such a large dose of reality in too much of a panic to take proper notice. Maybe now you can take a few deep breaths, crawl back over there, and peek for yourself.
Now, back to what Shift got wrong *this* time: as someone who actually pays real money for the material Shift provides, what do you think now of Shift’s claim that raising the minimum wage closes businesses? Did that false claim deliver value equal to your dollars?
Please do try to pay closer attention. The only place in this article and thread where there is any mention of businesses closing is your “debunking” and the only “debunking” you did in the previous thread was to anonymously cite another anonymous poster’s unsubstantiated claims. Sort of like continually bringing up some fictional deep, dark, secret Senate MCC conspiracy to “debunk” Greenie’s incompetence.
Now, back to what you got wrong *this* time: what do you think now of the leftist UW study’s conclusion that raising the minimum wage leads to higher youth unemployment, an increase in grocery, retail and rent prices, cutting worker hours, and reducing benefits?
bravo Biff
…the only “debunking” you did in the previous thread was to anonymously cite another anonymous poster’s unsubstantiated claims.
If you’d clicked on the link I’d provided and read the article, you could have seen for yourself exactly who that “anonymous” de-bunker actually was:
Indeed, Vigdor — who is overseeing the university’s analysis of minimum-wage data — notes that the same statistics for Bellevue and Everett, Wash., showed exactly the same percentage decrease that Perry found in Seattle, even though they haven’t increased their minimum wage.
So, do tell us: is Vigdor a reliable source of information on this matter, or is he not?
You didn’t provide a link, you didn’t even reply to me. You replied to someone else, anonymously citing the anonymous comment thread.
I provided a link in that thread. Go read it.
I provided the link specifically to rebut the false claim you had made — the claim you repeated here.
(And since when did “anonymous” become a dirty word with you? Have Shift’s posts suddenly sprouted bylines?)
Your posts from the relevant thread (a reply to Pat, not me):
“No, the statistics all came from the federal Bureau of Labor Statistics, just as Biff wrote. Neither the city of Seattle nor the State of Washington had anything to do with the figures.
The method used by Perry on these statistics showed the results Biff recounted, but could also be used to show the same results for cities which had not raised their minimum wages. Thus, if Perry’s methods were valid, Perry was really showing any job losses in Seattle were *not* related to our recent increase in the minimum wage. Somehow I doubt Biff wanted to show this, but there you have it.
(I feel your pain, though; it’s more than a little weird to have Biff make a claim which later turns out to be true.)”
And then this one (also a reply to not me but to Pat):
“I had figured Biff had swallowed Perry’s now-infamous statistical manipulation hook, line, and sinker, but I wanted Biff to confirm this. As one of Perry’s de-bunkers noted,
…the same statistics for Bellevue and Everett, Wash., showed exactly the same percentage decrease that Perry found in Seattle, even though they haven’t increased their minimum wage.
So, the only thing you guys have demonstrated is your gullibility for the very propaganda you were predisposed to believe — and we all knew that already”
Maybe you should go read your own posts again and find this link you specifically posted. It’s gotta be right next to the deep, dark, secret Senate MCC conspiracy link you specifically posted.
You somehow failed to provide a link to that thread. I wonder why?
Right from the Bureau of Labor Statistics. Look at the chart. A seasonally adjusted, 3 month job loss number that rivals the first 8 months of the 2009 recession, in what you claim is booming Seattle…
Who wrote that comment, Biff? Click on the link and tell us.
In direct response to that comment, I provided the following quote:
…the same statistics for Bellevue and Everett, Wash., showed exactly the same percentage decrease that Perry found in Seattle, even though they haven’t increased their minimum wage.
And I provided a link to the story from which that quote came:
“Why do conservatives keep saying Seattle’s minimum wage hike has failed — without data?”
That story was published by the Los Angeles Times under the byline of their business reporter, Michael Hiltzik, and quotes economist Jacob Vigdor de-bunking Perry’s study.
That was all of a week ago. Do try to keep up, Biff.
@Tensor words are truthful and golden. Never lies or avoid conversations, even when the truth comes up he will argue until you get tired. His 25 years old mind will never agree with you because his views are the truth and and will never accept defeat!!
… where there is any mention of businesses closing …
Yes, you’re correct: Shift completely, utterly, and totally failed to mention the finding relevant to Shift’s long-standing claim of business closures due to Seattle’s increase in the minimum wage. As a financial contributor to Shift, what do you think was responsible for this obvious failure?
No, you’re incorrect: You completely, utterly, and totally failed to find any mention of business closings in this article or thread other than in your unbalanced ramblings. Try to stay on topic.
Biff, I’m agreeing with you: Shift completely failed to mention the study’s finding of “no compelling evidence” that Seattle’s increase in our minimum wage caused business closures in the city. I was asking you for your opinion on why Shift, which has repeatedly claimed Seattle’s increase in our minimum wage was causing businesses to close, completely failed to quote the very part of the study which addressed Shift’s claim of business closures caused by our higher minimum wage. Do you have an opinion on Shift’s failure to quote that point from the study? If so, could you please share it with us?
How do you believe Shift missed such an obvious reference to a point they’ve been making for awhile now?
… what do you think now of the leftist UW study’s conclusion …
You haven’t actually quoted the study. You’ve quoted Shift’s opinion of what the study claimed. (And, as we’ve already agreed elsewhere in this very thread, Shift has mysteriously failed to quote a portion of the study which relates directly to Shift’s claims of business closures in Seattle being caused by our minimum wage increase, so we both know Shift’s opinion of what the study says is ill-founded.)
Once you quote the study, I can respond to it. Please do so, and provide a link to the study itself — not to an opinion which, as we both agree, missed a vital point from that study.
Your notion of “debunking” reminds me of Trump.
Places don’t close immediately when hit with higher costs. Like if my expenses as an individual were increased every year by a thousand dollars and I had no increase in my pay it would take several years before I’d have to move. It doesn’t mean it wasn’t hurting me or reducing my ability to thrive long term.
Seattle is almost immune from the consequences because if the tech boom here and lots of money being spent. Our rent us expected to surpass San Francisco’s in a couple of years. But if the economy hits a downturn and people start eating at home more the businesses will have less reserve to see them through the dip and many might close. The funny thing is though even though their paychecks have increased their spending money hasn’t. Landlords, restaurants, and businesses just raise their prices putting even more out of reach as these people. And as Seattle becomes unaffordable to them they will simply spend more time getting to work, more on transportation and childcare, and they will continue to lose hrs. Why do you support low income people making less money?
Well said my little grasshopper
Did you read the article? “Moreover, if there has been any increase in business closings caused by the Minimum Wage Ordinance, it has been more than offset by an increase in business openings.” So the poor people who lost jobs and hours are offset by middle class and wealthy people earning more in OTHER sectors. Genius.
What’s your basis for your claim, “the poor people who lost jobs and hours are offset by middle class and wealthy people earning more in OTHER sectors”? Where in the report does it say (or imply) this, genius?
Furthermore, if that’s what actually happened, why exactly would having a city with higher average income be a bad thing?
Let’s say Governor Inslee was a Republican and increased taxes when he promise the opposite–the liberals would be complaining about slavery through taxation–the republicans would align with him and defend his actions.
Moreover, you have to put yourself on the other person’s shoes and you will never argue with the two factions that people instilled for the last 150 plus years. I always said that both DEM and REP parties are not public servants, but politicians self serve and abide by special interests, lobbyist, and corporations interests.
Last, once you realize what I mean and take it to heart, you will become the 10% that are not affiliated with neither factions and try to wake up the 90% you will be bashed,demonize and labeled the following: right wing, crazy extremist, take your medications, put your aluminum hat back on, unpatriotic, weird, anti-social, out of touch, 7th century’s mentality, racist, xenophobia, Islamophobia, homophobia, womanizer,(even when part of the 10% are women), gun lover, Christian, and etc…
OR…….
For people that have no interest in making the country better, and would actually rather someone else do it, in fact so many people are “put out” if they are even asked to VOTE these days. You would think you were asking them to sign a contract that would yield their first born to a demon. And for those people, you are right. Just sit back, there is NOTHING you can do, you will just have to take whatever happens to get done, and that’s the end of it.
OR…….
You could be a citizen that happens to be very proud to be an American, despite the troubles we have seen the last 5 decades, join a party that you REALLY think is right, and try and MAKE the changes to make this country what it should be. That’s the rout that I have taken. But you are right about me having to endure all the language of the liberal mentality, being called about every name in the book, no matter how incorrect it is. That’s OK, I’m actually getting used to some of it, in fact, at this point, I’m kind of proud when someone calls me a “racist”, as it usually means they don’t have an actual rebuttal to what I”m saying, so to respond, they just well…. attack, since their argument has totally fallen through.
It takes a LOT of time, and a lot of energy. Sometimes it even cost financially a lot more than I would like. But I would rather be one of the people that can HONESTLY stand up and say I’m doing the best I can, but mainly that I’m actually DOING SOMETHING which is a LOT more, than most people.
Inslee looked more like a deer in the headlights than usual last night–what an embarrassment. And the question was so simple.