Last week, Jay Inslee’s Carbon Emissions Reduction Task force (CERT) released an economic study that demonstrates “positive economic results from one potential climate policy.” That climate policy would place “a price on carbon beginning at 12 cents per gallon of gas and rising to over $1.50 per gallon by 2035, returning a portion of the revenue to selected industries.” The report claims that the policy scenario would create approximately 30,000 more jobs in Washington State “than in the baseline scenario.”
There’s only one problem with CERT’s projections. According to the Washington Policy Center (WPC), “the economists who produced those results admit they have “no confidence” in the accuracy of the projections.” When asked to give an indication of the margin of error of the projections, the economists responded:
“The best (really only) way to introduce any sensitivity into simulations is through the inputs. ie. Assume a 10% increase vs a 20% increase in energy rates. There are no confidence margins on our results given the number of equations that go into every forecast.”
Based on economists’ response, it’s safe to assume that the model used for the report is “so complicated, assessing the accuracy is impossible, preventing modelers from even providing an estimate of potential margin of error.” Responding an inquiry made by the WPC, the state claims that the models used for the projections are “the best available.” Apparently, “the best available” for Inslee and his climate policy agenda leaves out both usefulness and accuracy.
More indications that Inslee’s climate policy projections are highly inaccurate include:
1. The questionable conclusion that “the economy would grow faster after raising gas taxes by 8 cents a gallon every year for the next 20 years.”
2. The questionable claim that Inslee’s plan is revenue neutral, especially considering the fact that the plan promises to use 35% of “the revenue is used for government programs, either in the General Fund or for the Working Families Tax Credit.”
Of course, blatant admissions of inaccuracy has not prevented Inslee and his office from bragging about the results of the study.
Doug Wotton says
my question is this how is it they cant be fired in any job you take you screw it up you can be out the door in 5 min or less why not politician’s. and is it a contest to see who the lying’s most damaging idiot out there.
Where will these jobs be created ? Government ? So the tax really is a wash to grow government .