Statewide and federal races often attract the most attention in elections, particularly in primaries. After all, it’s much easier to interview a former sportscaster like Tony Ventrella on whether he will resume a congressional race he quit a month ago, since the uninformed Democrat voters in the Eighth District selected someone who had decided not to run to lose in November to Congressman Dave Reichert, though there were two other Democrats on the ballot who wanted the opportunity to get thrashed in the fall.
However, the real excitement for political junkies and policy wonks is in the legislative races, since control of both the State House and Senate is up for grabs. The Democrats have a two-seat advantage in the House (50-48), and so even losing one seat would mean a tie. In the Senate, where a Republican-dominated Majority Coalition has ruled since 2013, the liberals need to win two GOP seats to win back control.
And, unfortunately for the Democrats, there are some bad tidings in the initial primary numbers (though the Seattle blog Crosscut decided to only focus on races Democrats wanted to talk about). Here’s a rundown of what is in play.
The House
It appears Republicans have already taken a strong lead in forcing at least a tie in the House by running up a huge margin in the 31stDistrict seat currently held by retiring Democrat Chris Hurst. Former State Rep. Phil Fortunato is leading with 40% in the South King/East Pierce County district, a large part of the 63% of the vote earned by Republicans in the race.
Another Democrat open seat is in South Snohomish County’s 44th District, where controversial former Democrat County Executive John Lovick rode his high name ID to a 52-45 lead over first-time legislative candidate Janice Huxford. Should Huxford prove able to focus the voters’ attention on Lovick’s many errors as the county leader – he was so inept that a fellow Democrat took him out last year – she may well be able to close the gap in a district that has been trending GOP for several election cycles.
The top incumbent target of Republicans, Christine Kilduff, was narrowly over 50% in her race in South Pierce County’s 28th District, and is certainly not out of the woods.
Liberals were pleased by their performance in the Federal Way-based 30th District, where challengers were ahead of Republican incumbents in both races. However, Representatives Teri Hickel (trailing by 55 votes) and Linda Kochmar (behind by 419) have both won heavily contested races in recent years, and may well close their deficits when the remaining votes are tallied, and will certainly have strong support in the general election.
Finally, the Democrats were hoping for a much different result in the 5th District in East King County, where the party had invested $50,000 to keep the three-time failure as a congressional candidate Darcy Burner off the general election ballot in an open seat race. Instead, Burner trounced the Democrats’ chosen candidate, Matt Larson, 36-17%, and now gets to face Republican Paul Graves, who led the field with 47%. In the heavily-GOP leaning district, Burner is not an acquired taste, so look for Democrats to throw in the towel there.
The Senate
Republicans are on the offensive in the Senate, looking to add to their two-seat majority that includes Democrat Sen. Tim Sheldon. The top target is first-term incumbent Mark Mullet, who finished Tuesday 46 votes ahead of St. Rep. Chad Magendanz, and is on shaky ground in a district he won through a fluke in 2012 (when the Republican quit after the filing deadline to take a cushy state job from former Governor Christine Gregoire). This will be the most expensive race in the state, with over a $1 million expected to be spent by both sides.
Additionally, the GOP is closely watching the open seat fight in the North King/South Snohomish County First District, where state Rep. Luis Moscoso saw his campaign rocked by domestic abuse charges in recent weeks, but who is still narrowly leading his Democrat challenger, Guy Palumbo. Republican challenger Mindie Wirth is the leading vote-getter with over 40%, and will be in a very strong position to take on one of the weakened Democrats in the general.
Liberals’ are pinning their hopes on taking an open seat in Vancouver’s 17th District, though the 50.7% showing last night by former state Rep. Tim Probst was hardly the knock-out Democrats were hoping for against sitting state Rep. Linda Wilson. Like the 5th, this promises to be a multi-million dollar race by November.
Finally, Democrats are again trying to defeat veteran GOP Senator Steve Litzow in the 41st District. The Mercer Island Republican has fought off numerous challenges from the Left since his days as a state representative, and tallied 49-48% lead over first-timer Linda Wellman in early returns. Many suspect that will be her high-water mark, given Litzow’s experience in tight races.
So those are the races to watch as we head towards November, and the possibility of Republicans taking control of the State House for the first time since being tied in 2001, and potentially controlling both legislative bodies for the first time since 1998.
