Washington’s November election delivered a mixed bag for the state’s political establishment. Democrats strengthened their already firm grip on Olympia, expanded their majority in the House to historic proportions, and received a clear victory on the controversial income tax they passed earlier this year.
But voters also sent a message Democrats would rather not hear: they approved Initiative 638, protecting girls’ sports from biological males competing in girls’ divisions. And while Democrats celebrated their legislative victories, one conservative-backed Supreme Court candidate managed to break through the Democratic-aligned judicial slate.
Here’s what happened—and what comes next.
Democrats Get Their House Supermajority
Democrats entered the election with a 59–39 advantage in the state House. They leave with at least 66 of the chamber’s 98 seats, securing a two-thirds supermajority for the first time since 1949.
That is not a small shift. It gives Democrats greater control over the legislative process and makes it easier to advance their agenda without needing Republican support. With the governor’s office already in Democratic hands, the party has even fewer institutional obstacles standing between it and another round of progressive legislation.
The biggest gains came in districts Republicans had been defending:
- 17th Legislative District: Democrats Ben Christly and Diana Perez defeated Republican incumbents Kevin Waters and David Stuebe, flipping both seats.
- 18th Legislative District: Democrats Randi Knott and Deken Letinich defeated Republican incumbents Stephanie McClintock and John Ley, flipping both seats.
- 14th Legislative District: Democrats Chelsea Dimas and Ezequiel Morfin defeated Republican incumbents Gloria Mendoza and Deb Manjarrez.
- 26th Legislative District: Democrat Renee Hernandez Greenfield flipped the open seat previously held by Republican Michelle Caldier.
- 25th Legislative District: Democrat David Berg defeated Republican incumbent Michael Keaton.
The 17th and 18th District results were particularly painful for Republicans. GOP-aligned political action committees spent heavily defending those seats, but Democrats still managed to sweep all four contests.
A handful of House races were still being counted as of the latest available results, but Democrats had already crossed the 66-seat threshold. The supermajority is theirs.
Republicans Prevent a Senate Supermajority
The Senate tells a different story.
Democrats retained their majority, but Republicans prevented them from reaching the two-thirds threshold. The chamber’s balance stands at 30 Democrats to 19 Republicans.
The most closely watched contest was the 35th District, where Republican incumbent Drew MacEwen faced Democrat Carolina Mejia. After early returns gave Mejia the advantage, late ballots shifted the race back toward MacEwen. The latest reported count showed MacEwen ahead by approximately 446 votes.
That result matters. Democrats poured significant resources into trying to unseat MacEwen, but the Republican incumbent appears to have held on.
There was also an intraparty upset in the 32nd District, where Democrat Cindy Ryu defeated fellow Democrat and incumbent Sen. Jesse Salomon. Meanwhile, Republican Nikki Torres won the open 8th District seat over fellow Republican Gabe Galbraith.
Democrats still control the Senate, but they did not get the unchecked supermajority they would have liked. Republicans can take some satisfaction in that much.
Congressional Races: A Close Call in Eastern Washington
Washington’s congressional results offered a few notable surprises.
WA-03: Marie Gluesenkamp Perez defeats John Braun
Democratic incumbent Marie Gluesenkamp Perez defeated Republican challenger John Braun, winning approximately 53.6% to Braun’s 45.4%.
Braun’s challenge had attracted considerable attention, but Perez ultimately maintained a comfortable advantage. The result is another reminder that Washington’s 3rd Congressional District remains a difficult district for Republicans to flip.
WA-05: Michael Baumgartner holds off Carmela Conroy
The more competitive congressional contest was in Eastern Washington, where Republican incumbent Michael Baumgartner faced Democrat Carmela Conroy.
Baumgartner won with approximately 51.7% to Conroy’s 48.3%, a much closer result than his previous congressional victory. Conroy made the race competitive, but Baumgartner held the seat.
The outcome keeps the 5th District in Republican hands, even as Democrats made substantial gains in the state Legislature.
Supreme Court: One Conservative Victory Breaks Through
Five of Washington’s nine Supreme Court seats were on the ballot, making this one of the most consequential judicial elections in recent memory.
Democratic-backed candidates won four of the five contests:
- Position 1: Colleen Melody defeated Scott Edwards.
- Position 3: Jaime Hawk defeated David Stevens.
- Position 5: Theo Angelis defeated Dave Larson.
- Position 7: Chief Justice Debra Stephens defeated Todd Bloom.
But the race that drew the most attention was Position 4.
Sean O’Donnell defeats Ian Birk.
After days of counting, conservative-backed King County Superior Court Judge Sean O’Donnell declared victory over appeals court Judge Ian Birk on November 11. O’Donnell led by approximately 39,000 votes, or 1.4%, with fewer than 100,000 ballots remaining statewide.
O’Donnell’s victory is an important win for conservatives in an election where Democratic-aligned candidates prevailed in the other four races.
The stakes extend beyond the court’s ideological balance. The Supreme Court could soon be asked to decide the constitutionality of Washington’s new income tax. That makes the court’s composition particularly important as the legal fight over the tax continues.
The Initiatives: Voters Deliver a Mixed Message
The three statewide initiatives produced perhaps the most revealing results of the entire election.
Democrats got the outcome they wanted on the income tax. They did not get the outcome they wanted on girls’ sports. And the parental-rights measure failed.
Initiative 645: Voters Reject the Income Tax Repeal
Washington voters rejected Initiative 645, which would have repealed the Legislature’s new 9.9% tax on annual income above $1 million and prohibited future state and local taxes on individual income.
The measure lost by approximately 58% to 42%.
Gov. Bob Ferguson and the Democratic establishment are treating the result as a mandate for the tax. But a vote against repealing a law is not necessarily an enthusiastic endorsement of every argument Democrats made to defend it.
The tax, passed by the Democratic-controlled Legislature and signed by Ferguson earlier this year, is scheduled to take effect in 2028. Opponents have warned that it creates a precedent for expanding income taxation in a state that has historically resisted it.
Democrats can celebrate the ballot result. They cannot declare the legal fight over.
The income tax still faces a constitutional challenge. A lawsuit filed by former Attorney General Rob McKenna and former state Supreme Court Justice Phil Talmadge challenges the tax under Washington’s constitutional requirements for uniform property taxation and the one-percent property-tax limit. The case is separate from Initiative 645 and is scheduled for a February 5, 2027 hearing in Klickitat County.
In other words, voters rejected the repeal effort, but the courts still have a say in whether the tax itself is constitutional.
Initiative 638: Voters Protect Girls’ Sports
This was the result Democrats and progressive activists really did not want.
Initiative 638 passed with approximately 57% of the vote and carried 36 of Washington’s 39 counties. The measure restricts participation in girls’ K-12 sports based on biological sex and establishes a sex-verification process for athletic eligibility.
Despite the relentless effort to frame the measure as an attack on transgender students, a majority of Washington voters supported protecting girls’ sports.
The result is especially notable in a state where Democrats dominate statewide politics. Even here, voters were willing to break with the progressive position on this issue.
And, predictably, the legal fight began almost immediately.
The ACLU and allied organizations have filed a lawsuit seeking to block Initiative 638.
The lawsuit was filed in King County Superior Court and is backed by the ACLU of Washington, Legal Voice, and Pacifica Law Group. The plaintiffs include parents of transgender and cisgender children, the Washington Education Association, and TransFamilies.
The lawsuit argues that I-638 violates several provisions of the state constitution, including the right to privacy, the Equal Rights Amendment, and constitutional protections governing education. It also challenges the measure’s sex-verification requirements, arguing that they create an invasive process for girls seeking to participate in sports.
The initiative’s supporters reject that characterization and argue the measure is about fairness and protecting girls’ athletic opportunities.
The law is scheduled to take effect December 3 unless a court blocks it.
So much for letting voters decide. The progressive response to losing the argument at the ballot box has been to try to win it in court.
Initiative 001: Parental Rights Measure Falls Short
The parental-rights initiative, IL26-001, also failed, with approximately 52.4% voting no and 47.6% voting yes.
The measure sought to restore the original language of Washington’s 2024 Parents’ Bill of Rights initiative, reversing changes made by the Legislature in 2025.
Its defeat is a setback for supporters who wanted to restore stronger parental access to information about their children’s education and school-related matters.
As of November 12, no comparable post-election lawsuit challenging the result of Initiative 001 had been reported. The outcome is a political defeat for parental-rights advocates, but it does not end the broader debate over parental access and school policies.
Another Election, Another Court Fight
There is one other legal development worth watching.
Before the election, the Trump administration sought to force Washington election officials to set aside ballots from more than 400 voters alleged to be noncitizens while their eligibility was investigated. A federal judge in Seattle rejected that request on November 6, preventing the ballots from being withheld.
That dispute is separate from the initiative lawsuits, but it adds to the post-election legal activity surrounding Washington’s voting process.
For now, the most consequential court battles are likely to be the challenge to Initiative 638 and the separate constitutional challenge to the income tax.
What Happens Next?
The election has given Democrats more power in Olympia, but it has not given them a blank check.
They have a historic House supermajority, a Senate majority, and a governor from their own party. That combination will make it easier to push through legislation on taxes, spending, education, and other progressive priorities.
But the election also demonstrated that Washington voters are not uniformly on board with the Democratic agenda. Initiative 638 passed decisively. Sean O’Donnell won a closely watched Supreme Court race. And Republicans managed to prevent a Senate supermajority.
The income tax repeal failed, but the constitutional challenge remains alive. Initiative 638 passed, but opponents are already asking a judge to stop it. And the parental-rights initiative failed, leaving that debate unresolved.
Democrats may be celebrating their expanded power today. Washington taxpayers and families should be watching what they do with it tomorrow.
Because if this election proved anything, it is that winning an election is one thing. Convincing voters that the policies coming out of Olympia are actually working is quite another.
